We visited Yercaud for our family vacation. On the second day, we were greeted with incessant rains. Consequently, there was a power cut for the whole day. Without any access to usual distractions like the TV or mobile, we decided to play Rummy using playing cards.
Before starting the game, my father — with his characteristic hubris — proclaimed he is a master and will win. I was rather skeptical of this claim since Rummy is primarily a game about luck. If you are dealt the right cards, you are more likely to win.
Let me quickly explain the rules of the game quickly. Each player is dealt a set number of cards and required to make sets. If each player got 7 cards, they are supposed one set of 3 cards and another set of 4 cards. The set can be a series like 2-3-4 (and -5) of the same suit or the same number repeated multiple times (10 of clubs, spade, heart, and/or diamond). The player quickest to make the series wins the same.
We played the first game… and my father won. I thought beginner’s luck.
The second game…and my father won again. Again lucky but my hypothesis was stretching thin!
The third game…and my father won AGAIN. Okay, clearly I was missing something.
I accepted that there was more than just luck at play. There were five of us. The probability for my father to win purely based on luck was less than 1% (0.8% to be precise). There was something else that made him win. But what helped him win all the games? Fortunately, people inebriated with hubris often reveal their secrets. I noted two factors based on his gameplay and claims that helped him win.
1. Overcoming Sunk Cost
Some of the games stretched long with none of us were able to complete the series. During one such time, my father said, “You are not willing to change but I have changed my series." He was ready to forego what he had to start something else from scratch. In economics, this is called sunk cost fallacy. Simply put, it means a person is reluctant to abandon their strategy because they have heavily invested in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
Let me give you an example to illustrate this. After the cards were dealt, I got 3 & 4 of spade. This meant I needed either 2 or 5 of spade to complete my series. I waited for these cards for the entire duration of the game. The cards were not available in the pile as well. Yet I never changed my strategy despite knowing that I can't complete my series. I hoped against hope that someone will put the card back into the pile. It didn't have happen. Ultimately, I lost the game.
2. Increasing the odds of success
People often complain that successful people were simply lucky. While it is true that luck is not uniform and some get lucky earlier than others. However, luck or success is also a game of probability. And one needs to learn how to increase the odds of success. The game of rummy is a great example of how to increase the odds of success.
In one of the games, I got Jack and King of clubs. I became excited. I only needed Queen of clubs to complete my series. Further, I saw the Queen of clubs in the open card pile. So, I waited. And waited. It never arrived -- and I lost the game.
Instead, if I had changed my set, I could have fared better. If I had Jack and Queen of clubs, I would have needed either 10 or King of clubs to complete my set. My odds of success would have doubled. Does this mean I would have won? Not necessarily, but my likelihood of winning would have increased.
Imitating Rummy in Career Planning
How does learning the winning strategies in Rummy help with career planning?
In the world of accelerating growth and the advent of technology, there has been creation and churn of careers within a decade. Examples of newer career options like an Instagram Influencer is a full-time career - which is based on an app created only in 2010. Similarly, professions like cashier, travel agent and telly operator are likely to disappear or become almost redundant in future.
But professions that are likely to face reduced demand are not confined to blue-collar jobs. It is believed that even creative professions like digital artists are likely to face stiff competition from artificial intelligence (AI). DALL-E (the newest AI that generates images based on prompts) is able to create some spectacular images based on the weirdest prompts -- so much so that people believe that this is a final death knell to all creative artists around the world. Just last week, an AI-generated picture won an art prize.
First, professionals should accept that the job market of the future will be uncertain and it is likely that their existing skillset might become redundant. If such a situation arises, one should have no sunk cost. They should be ready to pivot to another sector and learn something from scratch. The humility to accept that one needs to start from the beginning is an important step toward a more beneficial and successful career in uncertain times.
Second, position yourself so that you are more likely to succeed. This requires increasing the odds of success. One way could be to identify and focus on acquiring a skill that complements your current skills to make you more likely to succeed. For example, if you are already good at digital artwork, try to study data analytics and combine both skill sets to become a storyteller using data. This helps increase the odds of success. As Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) said, “ Good + Good = Excellent.”
Winning and losing are part of the game. However, once we overcome sunk costs and identify ways to increase the odds of becoming lucky, we are more likely to win than lose. As for the game of rummy, I did manage to win one of the games by changing my series and increasing the odds of success. I hope you succeed in winning not just in a game of rummy but also in your career.
